Estimating the Speed of Exponential Technological Advancement
Every twelve to eighteen months, computers double their capabilities, and so do the information technologies that use them.
Governments and the largest companies in the world useRay Kurzweils historical trends of exponential growth chartsfor predicting the future.
The chart to the left shows the improvement level that our technology will have during the next five years. Notice that we can clearly distinguish and reasonably intuit these eight, sixteen, and thirty-two times improved technologies, predicting the next five years.
But what happens to your five year intuitive perspective when you look at the ten year perspective on the next chart?